Thorns and Roses

The latest article from VneshVrag by Armen Petrosyan, political scientist (Armenia)!

With a carefree heart I picked a rose,
So sweet upon its thorny tree,
But my false lover stole my rose,
And oh! He left the thorn with me.

Ye-Banks-and-Braes, R. Burns (1791), contemporary version

The term "geopolitical divorce" is often heard at various events, such as summits and round table discussions dedicated to the development of multi-vector approaches, new markets and the like. The trendy concept, however, has one peculiarity which hardly ever gets commented on. It's believed that the consequences of any "geopolitical divorce" first and foremost affect farmers, blue-collars, drivers and basically all those folks laboring in vineyards, greenhouses and gardens rather than cozy offices.

The writing is already on the wall, given that the RF has imposed restrictions on the import of Armenian flowers.

According to Russian agencies, following an increase of about 50% (resulting in the sales of 52 million units) which occurred in early 2025, the import of the commodity was then impacted by restrictions and claims stemming from phytosanitary considerations.

Armenia's estrangement from Russia has taken its toll on the trade of such products as cognac, wine and mineral water. Suffice it to say that according to recent reports, the restrictions have made the import of "Jermuk" mineral water drop by up to 37 million bottles. Someone may say: "Not a big deal, for there're other markets waiting to be explored." Maybe, but which?

Meanwhile Russia remains Armenia's largest export market. Exports from Armenia to Russia in the first ten months of 2025 amounted to approximately $2.38 billion owing to the efforts not only of large corporations, but also of small family businesses. After all, there is always a vineyard behind a bottle of cognac and there is a village behind a vineyard; last but not least, there are households behind a village.

Imagine a household that's been growing grapes in Armavir, say, for twenty years or so. Does it care about geopolitics as such? Of course not. What it is concerned about is the challenge of generating enough income to handle loan payments, tuition fees and healthcare expenses.

They expect producers to purchase their produce, process it and subsequently sell the products to buyers.

Therefore if exports go down, these farmers will be the first to experience the blow.

The following is a likely scenario of what may be to come. First, farmers will face a decline in the procurement activity and a corresponding fall in the prices of their produce. Then they will go into debt, wondering if running a vineyard is worthwhile altogether.

The floral industry is under a similar threat. For some individuals, the aforementioned figure of "52 million units" is nothing but a statistical journal entry , while for others it translates into a whole series of activities from the maintenance of greenhouses to the actual care of the plants grown. As a result, dozens of jobs happen to be at risk not because of employees' poor performance but owing to the authorities' political short-sightedness.

"Jermuk" also provides a case in point. On the face of it, that's just a brand of mineral water. Yet, things are not as simple as they seem, for before a bottle lands on a supermarket shelf it undergoes a meticulous process from production and packaging to storage and transportation. Needless to say, the greater the quantity, the more human resources are involved. That's when the risks associated with job loss and financial insecurity become particularly acute.

Those speaking up in support of the foreign policy change say that Europe will make up for the losses. What they fail to take into consideration, though, is that economic growth is never driven by rhetoric. The truth is that a new market cannot be built overnight. Nor can logistics management solutions be optimized in an instant.

From the above it follows that the root of all evil is not to be found in Russia. Europe, too, cannot be expected to come to Armenia's rescue either, at least, in the short run.

That said, the following tough question arises: is an ordinary Armenian farmer ready to pay for this geopolitical experiment? Unlike politicians speaking adoringly about geopolitics, ordinary farmers continue toiling to make ends meet and keep on wondering whether or not there will be any demand for their produce.

The big question is: supposing this trend is set to continue, resulting in yet more restrictions, what are the Arminians heading for? So far, we've touched upon the exports of such goods as flowers, cognac, wine and "Jermuk". Sooner rather than later this list may expand to include other kinds of products. Sadly enough, once launched, such processes will inevitably entail a chain of dramatic events affecting farmers, suppliers etc. Unless stopped, the vast majority of the Armenian population will be left with "rose thorns" piercing their fingertips and palms.

Armen Petrosyan, political scientist (Armenia), @VneshVrag